BestWestern From Ireland, joined Sep 2000, 4480 posts, RR: 53 Posted (5 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 27478 times:
If Boeing dont achieve any passenger sales at Farnborough this year will the 748 passenger variant survive the forthcoming industry downturn?
The show runs from 14th to 20th July, with many major 2008 aircraft orders expected to be announced this year planned for the show, including Emirates. Fleetbuzz (with a slight boeing bias) thinks EK is a strong possibility, but more recently worried about over ordering in the region.
The excellent last major thread on the 748i (from Feb) quoted six sales campaigns ongoing, and the original post wondered outloud if the rumours of the demise were greatly exaggerated? Six months later - if no sales are made, will the rumours gather pace?
Zvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 9660 posts, RR: 60 Reply 1, posted (5 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 27461 times:
The 747-8I and the 747-8F will be built on the same line. The 27 747-8Is (including 2 so far this year) suffice to cover the marginal development cost beyond that of the 747-8F. There is no reason for Boeing to cancel the 747-8I before the 747-8F. They will most likely be cancelled at the same time. Boeing didn't cancel the 747-400 or the 747-400ER despite several years without sales because the 747-400F and 747-400ERF were keeping the line open. It will be the same with the 747-8.
PC12Fan From United States, joined Jan 2007, 1071 posts, RR: 3 Reply 3, posted (5 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 27396 times:
You may want to do a search on this, the alleged demise of the 748i has been discussed at length. LH at this time has no intention of cancelling their order for 20 plus 20. With the success of the 748F, the 748i is not very taxing of the 748 program. It should stick around.
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
Flyglobal From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 114 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (5 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 27365 times:
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1): The 747-8I and the 747-8F will be built on the same line. The 27 747-8Is (including 2 so far this year) suffice to cover the marginal development cost beyond that of the 747-8F. There is no reason for Boeing to cancel the 747-8I before the 747-8F. They will most likely be cancelled at the same time. Boeing didn't cancel the 747-400 or the 747-400ER despite several years without sales because the 747-400F and 747-400ERF were keeping the line open. It will be the same with the 747-8.
I am exactly the same opinion. Even without further sales this year, the 748i will be built. I believe that they will gather some sales, not that much probably as I expect that given the choice most customers will want the A380 at the end, but it will be less then zero. And it doesn't matter 'that much' as incremental cost aren't that high given the freighter will fly anyhow.
SeaBosDca From United States, joined Sep 2007, 976 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (5 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 27324 times:
Every delay in A380 deliveries increases the probability of a few extra 747-8I sales. The aircraft is obviously not as attractive as some of its competitors. But, at some point, the nearer availability of frames, relative to the A380, the A350-1000, and even the 777-300ER, will be enough to generate a few sales.
I can easily see a growth-minded airline like EK or EY taking a few 747-8I frames simply because it allows them to get more large widebody lift sooner. This is doubly true for EK because they are already taking 747-8F frames.
I still have a crazy theory that SQ could use the 747-8I very well as a 9Y ULH aircraft. So far they don't seem to agree with me. Who knows their business better, anyway -- me or them? Â
[Edited 2008-05-11 07:13:36]
Most gorgeous aircraft: Tu-204-300, 757-200, A330-200, 777-200LR, 787-8
EBJ1248650 From United States, joined Jun 2005, 996 posts, RR: 1 Reply 7, posted (5 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 27118 times:
Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 3): You may want to do a search on this, the alleged demise of the 748i has been discussed at length. LH at this time has no intention of cancelling their order for 20 plus 20. With the success of the 748F, the 748i is not very taxing of the 748 program. It should stick around.
It's interesting too that, according to Boeing's web site, 7 of the 748i aircraft on order are business jets. I knew the business jet market is big, but never realized there was that much of a market for wide body business jets in such numbers.
Air cargo is growing. The days of the worn out airliner being used as cargo birds aren't over, but it appears the airlines have discovered it pays to use more modern equipment both in their passenger and cargo operations. The 748F will do well, as is already pretty obvious. And in my opinion, the 748i will do well too. The uncertainty of world economy has all the airlines worried and new airplane orders aren't going to be of the magnitude we've been used to in the past. Still there are going to be some pleasant surprises and it won't come as a big surprise that the surviving airlines will place large orders for new aircraft in the next couple of years.
Stitch From United States, joined Jul 2005, 12408 posts, RR: 52 Reply 8, posted (5 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 27036 times:
Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 7): The days of the worn out airliner being used as cargo birds aren't over, but it appears the airlines have discovered it pays to use more modern equipment both in their passenger and cargo operations.
And even more "lightly-used" birds are not turning into the best freighters. An SQ employee reported here that the company has not been happy with the performance of their 747-400BCFs so they are not going forward with additional conversions and this will likely push them into buying new 747-8Fs to expand their cargo arm.
So those who believe the 747-8F will be buried by a wave of 747-400BCF conversions as the A380-800 enters the world's fleets might have to revise that view...
Sabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2512 posts, RR: 31 Reply 9, posted (5 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 26873 times:
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1): The 27 747-8Is (including 2 so far this year) suffice to cover the marginal development cost beyond that of the 747-8F
Let's get real here for a minute here, shall we?
Your idea the 748i is only a marginal cost to the entire 748 program is not to be taken seriously, is it?
A pax version of a plane is not just the cargo version of that plane with windows punched in its side and seats installed to it! Interiors (especially on long haul planes) have become quite a bit more complicated than that over the last 20 years my friend and designing, fitting, testing, certifying and subsequently doing most of it over again in a process of customisation, all costs a fortune!
Just look at the A330F.
It is 'just' a freighter built on an existing pax platform. It could be argued the A330F will 'just' be a stripped down A330pax and since the A330 shares the same fuselage with the A330/A310 family which already exists as a freighter, the A330F must only cost peanuts to develop and turn a profit from plane 1 then, right?
I am sorry, but despite the stellar success of the A330F, we still haven't sold enough to cover all costs...
And yet you think that those 27 or so 748i can cover the costs of the 748i program? Think again.
Do the sales numbers times 3 for a start and I may potentially start to take your claim serious, but not now and believe me: I know what I am talking about.
PhilSquares From Ireland, joined Mar 2004, 3564 posts, RR: 53 Reply 10, posted (5 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 26828 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 8): An SQ employee reported here that the company has not been happy with the performance of their 747-400BCFs so they are not going forward with additional conversions and this will likely push them into buying new 747-8Fs to expand their cargo arm.
SQ has no 744BCFs. However, having a sub fleet of the BCFs within the 744F fleet is way too much trouble and not worth the effort.
Tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 3489 posts, RR: 28 Reply 11, posted (5 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 26755 times:
Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 9):
Your idea the 748i is only a marginal cost to the entire 748 program is not to be taken seriously, is it?
A pax version of a plane is not just the cargo version of that plane with windows punched in its side and seats installed to it! Interiors (especially on long haul planes) have become quite a bit more complicated than that over the last 20 years my friend and designing, fitting, testing, certifying and subsequently doing most of it over again in a process of customisation, all costs a fortune!
I'd take it seriously. Most of the design, testing, and certifying for the 747-8i interior can piggyback off the 787. The fitting will, obviously, require additional work but, compared to the overall engineering of the model in the first place, it's really not that big of a factor.
Redoing it for customization is a red herring...that cost is born by the owner, not Boeing.
Alessandro From Sweden, joined Sep 2001, 4934 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (5 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 26745 times:
With the grandparent rights from the B741 I don´t think the cost isn´t massive to develope the B748i, as for competing with the A380, I don´t think so, even when LH gets their first B748i, many of the A380ies will be flying.
No, sales could be result of the oilprice being really high,+200US$/Barrel it would kill off the B744s faster.
AirbusA6 From United Kingdom (England), joined Apr 2005, 840 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (5 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 26550 times:
Quoting SeaBosDca (Reply 5): Every delay in A380 deliveries increases the probability of a few extra 747-8I sales. The aircraft is obviously not as attractive as some of its competitors. But, at some point, the nearer availability of frames, relative to the A380, the A350-1000, and even the 777-300ER, will be enough to generate a few sales.
With the delays in the 787 sucking up a lot more of Boeing's resources, I'd be very surprised if the 747-8 programme remains on time...
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed national express a4 to ruin my username)
Stitch From United States, joined Jul 2005, 12408 posts, RR: 52 Reply 14, posted (5 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 26414 times:
Quoting PhilSquares (Reply 10): SQ has no 744BCFs. However, having a sub fleet of the BCFs within the 744F fleet is way too much trouble and not worth the effort.
Ah, thanks.
As to the 747-8I's development costs, we do know Boeing has spent at least $300 million on it once LH committed to buying 20 of them. It is likely Boeing spent only minimally on the variant prior to that, with the bulk of R&D going towards the 747-8F program and therefore "sunk" even if the 747-8I had never been conceived, much less launched. The main difference between the 747-8I and 747-8F is the longer upper deck for the passenger model. The 747-8I and 747-8F have identical aft plugs, but the forward plugs are in different locations to accommodate the different purposes. Figure this work added another $200 million for a total of $500 million.
Average list price for the plane is $278 million. LH's discount was predicted to be 45%, which is in-line with what 747-8F's are going for. So figure $125 million per frame sale price. We will also assume the 7 747 VIPs went for that, but likely they sold for more. Again, I do not believe Boeing went extra-deep on the LH order (especially the ludicrous 60% claims) some made, otherwise Boeing would have won the BA order.
Airbus claims they can build an A380-800 for $100 million. One expects Boeing can build a 747-8I for less thanks to both experience and most of their factory is already fully amortized where none of the A380's is. Still, let's also be generous and say Boeing also needs $100 million to build each plane.
So 27 747-8I's will cost Boeing $2.7 billion to build. Add in the $500 million in R&D costs and the total cost is $3.2 billion. 27 sales at $125 million a piece brings in $3.375 billion. That would have Boeing $175 million up on the program at a minimum. $175 million is not that whizz-poor of a return on a $500 million investment - 35%. If Boeing could build a 747-8I for less then $100 million and/or sell it for more then $125 million, then that improves the numbers even more.
Now, if Boeing is really taking a bath on the 747-8I between low sales and high development costs, then they can afford to cancel it because LH is likely going to continue their (essentially) all-Airbus mainline policy and choose the A350 over the 787. So Boeing can afford to tell LH to take a long walk off a short pier. The BBJ customers can be bought-off with the 777VIP.
SEPilot From United States, joined Dec 2006, 2928 posts, RR: 8 Reply 15, posted (5 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 26048 times:
It makes no sense at all for Boeing to kill the 748i as long as the 748F is in production. LH WILL get theirs; the VIP planes will be built, and if Boeing never sells another they will still offer it to keep Airbus honest on pricing the A380. Whether or not the 27 already sold are enough to pay for the development is a moot point; the 748 program as a whole will make money. Canceling the 748i would cost more in terms of engineering already done plus penalties, IMHO, than it would save.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...
Khobar From United States, joined Mar 2006, 1724 posts, RR: 2 Reply 16, posted (5 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 25656 times:
Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 9): A pax version of a plane is not just the cargo version of that plane with windows punched in its side and seats installed to it! Interiors (especially on long haul planes) have become quite a bit more complicated than that over the last 20 years my friend and designing, fitting, testing, certifying and subsequently doing most of it over again in a process of customisation, all costs a fortune!
Remember, the 748i s a 40+ year old design, or so some keep saying over and over. So the development costs are almost nil.
One example - window belts from the 777 - already paid for.
Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 9): It is 'just' a freighter built on an existing pax platform. It could be argued the A330F will 'just' be a stripped down A330pax and since the A330 shares the same fuselage with the A330/A310 family which already exists as a freighter, the A330F must only cost peanuts to develop and turn a profit from plane 1 then, right?
SEPilot From United States, joined Dec 2006, 2928 posts, RR: 8 Reply 18, posted (5 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 25255 times:
Quoting Khobar (Reply 16):
One example - window belts from the 777 - already paid for.
But incorporating them into a different diameter fuselage means that you are starting over. Planes are not built like LEGO blocks; every part has to fit its adjoining parts, and when one thing changes then all affected parts have to change. I suspect that there is actually comparatively little work to be done on the fuselage, as it will be essentially the same as the 744 with plugs added, which will entail comparatively little design work. The real work will be in the interior fittings, which could be just reworked 744 stuff, but I gather they are trying to upgrade it. But even using 787 components requires redesigning them to fit the different fuselage configuration.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...
Sponsor Message: 
From Ireland, joined Sep 2000, 4480 posts, 
From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 9660 posts, 
From United States, joined Aug 2005, 4547 posts, 
From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 114 posts, 
From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2512 posts, 
From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 3489 posts, 
From Sweden, joined Sep 2001, 4934 posts, .gif){kind=small}
From United Kingdom (England), joined Apr 2005, 840 posts, 
From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 329 posts,